How PaceIntel works — selections, odds, and results

About PaceIntel

PaceIntel didn't start as a tipping service. It started as a data analysis project, with Australian thoroughbred racing chosen as the problem to model on. Racing turned out to be an unusually good environment for that kind of work — decades of clean public results, real-time price signals, and a feedback loop where every prediction is settled within hours. We picked it because it teaches a model quickly, not because we set out to be tipsters.

Over a few years of iteration the model went through a lot of versions. Most got binned along the way. A few survived. As the qualifying conditions tightened and the published output narrowed, the strike rate and ROI on what was left became consistent enough that publishing the daily list openly felt worth doing. That's when this site went live.

We aren't professional punters and don't pretend to be. We do back the PaceIntel Signals selections ourselves, but not at a volume that covers the data feeds, infrastructure, and ongoing model work that PaceIntel runs on. Memberships do. That's the role this website plays, and it's also why we're comfortable capping Every Race Day at a small number of members — fewer subscribers on thinner weekday markets is better for the people already paying for the work, and a smaller member base keeps the service honest.

Either way, every selection goes out before the first race, every result is settled in the archive, and the strike rate and ROI shown on the public Track Record are the same figures we use internally. The model decides what gets published — we just publish it.

Best of Day, Pro Bets, and PaceIntel Signals

Every PaceIntel race day produces up to three layers of output. Each one plays a distinct role — they are not the same selection dressed up under different names.

What Morning Odds mean

Every PaceIntel selection is published with a Morning Odds figure. Morning Odds are the prices available in the market at the time the selection is published — typically early in the day, before the first race covered for that card.

Racing markets move throughout the day as money enters the pool and bookmakers adjust their prices. The price you can actually bet a runner at later in the day may be shorter or longer than the Morning Odds we recorded. We publish the Morning Odds as a transparent reference point so every member can see the price that was on offer when we committed to the selection.

When we settle a selection, we also record the result price where applicable. This is how our ROI figures are calculated — using the odds available at the time of publishing, not cherry-picked best prices.

How Suggested Stake sizing works

Every PaceIntel selection is published with a Suggested Stake (also called Bet Amount). The figure is sized against a $10,000 reference betting bank and reflects how much the model believes that selection is worth relative to the others on the card — larger suggested stakes flag the higher-conviction picks.

Suggested Stake is informational — a confidence / sizing guide shown next to each selection. It does not drive the published ROI. PaceIntel's Track Record is calculated on a flat 1-unit basis so the numbers are directly comparable with how most members evaluate a tipping service. Using Suggested Stake to size your own bets is up to you.

Scale each Suggested Stake to your own bankroll. Multiply by your bankroll divided by 10,000:

If your bankroll is smaller than the reference, do not feel pressured to bet the full suggested amount. Only ever bet with money you can comfortably afford to lose.

How results are tracked

PaceIntel publishes every selection before the first race for that card. Once the races are run, we settle each selection against the official outcome and record it in the archive. The archive is the source of truth for our track record.

Every selection — winner or loser — is published. There is no cherry-picking, no private channel of “real” selections we also tipped. The selections you see on the Track Record page are the complete public record of what we put out.

PaceIntel is a win-only service, reported on a flat 1-unit basis. We do not recommend place bets and do not credit place finishes with any return. For settlement:

• Win → return = 1 unit × result odds
• Place → return = 0 (shown as a race outcome for context only)
• Loss → return = 0
• Scratched → excluded from both stake pool and strike-rate denominator

Strike rate is the proportion of settled selections that won. ROI is total return minus total stake, divided by total stake — every selection counts as one unit. Suggested Stake is shown next to selections as a sizing guide but does not affect the published ROI.

The Saturday Public Card is the free weekly layer of the same proof system: a short list of PaceIntel model-generated selections published with Morning Odds each Saturday, then archived with settled results once racing is complete.

Why Every Race Day is limited

The Every Race Day membership is intentionally capped at a set number of active subscribers. This is a deliberate design choice, not a marketing device.

Weekday race cards have thinner betting pools than weekend metropolitan meetings. When too many members act on the same selection into a thin market, the available price shortens and the edge erodes for everyone. Capping Every Race Day memberships helps protect the Morning Odds that existing members are seeing, and keeps the service honest about what it can realistically deliver.

When the Every Race Day plan reaches capacity, new signups are paused and a waitlist opens. As subscriptions turn over, places are offered to waitlisted members in order. You can join the waitlist from the Pricing page when a cap is active.

Past results and future outcomes

We publish our full track record because we believe members deserve to see exactly what the service has done — not a marketing highlight reel.

At the same time: past results are not indicative of future results. Racing is inherently uncertain. Strong historical numbers do not guarantee future returns, and individual days or weeks can diverge sharply from the long-run average. No profit is guaranteed and outcomes can vary.

PaceIntel is general racing information, not personal financial advice. Betting should only ever be done with money you are prepared to lose. If gambling is causing harm, contact Gambling Help Online or call 1800 858 858.